Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Newt may decide the GOP nominee
Although Newt Gingrich didn't win either Alabama or Mississippi, the results may have helped him decide who will be the GOP nominee at the convention. Doesn't make much sense, but in a way, it's very true. If Gingrich had won those states, had Santorum come in a strong second, and had Romney come in a weak third, someone may have become a candidate and tried to get on as many of the remaining primaries as possible. This would mean that although Newt would have a few more delegates, he wouldn't be able to decide who should be the candidate, as all the candidates would have been so weak, it would have led to a completely fractured convention. But now, it may very well be that Romney goes into the convention with just a hundred delegates less than the number needed to win the nomination. So there's Newt with his delegates, and what can he do. Do nothing, hope that his delegates stay with him and other delegates come to him on the second ballot. Do nothing, and watch his delegates leave for Santorum. Or advise his delegates where to go. And in that case, who is close enough to have that push him over the threshold and has anything to give Newt? That's right, Romney. In either of the last two cases, it's Newt's delegates that push the winner over the top. So it's very possible that although Newt didn't win either state tonight, he may have given himself a bigger voice in who the ultimate nominee will be.
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